Although a new armed conflict seems improbable, the possibility cannot be excluded that the Azeri leadership will feel domestic pressure to use military force against the Karabakh Armenians.
Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer predicted 10 March 2010 that a new war in the South Caucasus between Armenia and Azerbaijan had become inevitable because of the rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey. In the Soviet period, Nagorno-Karabakh was an autonomous oblast within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic, covering an area of 4400 km2. On the one hand, the borders of Azerbaijan were internationally recognised at the time of the country being recognised as independent state in 1991. Despite possessing attributes of individuality, the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is in practice functionally adherent to Armenia, and cannot function without the latter’s support at the military and financial level. document.getElementsByTagName("head")[0].appendChild(script); Turkish Foreign Ministry also condemned Armenia for an alleged attack and urged Yerevan to fulfill the terms of the ceasefire. document.cookie = "__adblocker=" + (adblocker ? Another week of protests, Eyes west! After the breakup of the Soviet Union and independence, the conflict turned into open war between Azerbaijanis and Armenians (the army of Armenia and troops of Armenians from Karabakh). Where displaced persons want to go back, large efforts are needed for the reconstruction of their destroyed homes. The territories adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh are mostly deserted. If the Armenian occupier does not liberate our lands, the start of a great war in the South Caucasus is inevitable.' El ministre de Defensa àzeri va respondre que, juntament amb altres membres del personal militar armeni, en l'atac hi havien mort dos oficials d'altra graduació d'Armènia. You must have JavaScript enabled to use this form. The armed clash of 4/5 March 2008 was one of the worst to have taken place in recent times. According to the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan, units of the Armenian armed forces in the Tovuz district of the Azerbaijani-Armenian state border fired at Azerbaijani positions from artillery installations.In turn, the press secretary of the Armenian Ministry of Defense Shushan Stepanyan told Interfax that on Sunday afternoon, Azerbaijani troops first attempted to violate the border in an UAZ car, and then, using artillery fire, tried to capture the strong point. Armenian forces and forces of the self-styled "Republic of Nargono-Karabakh" (which is not recognized by any government) continue to occupy 20 percent of Azerbaijan's territory. Oil-producing Azerbaijan frequently threatens to take the mountainous Nagorno-Karabakh region back by force from the much weaker Armenia. During Armenia's war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, authorities evacuated approximately 65,000 households from the border region, but most IDPs later returned to their homes or settled elsewhere. Although Azerbaijan’s success was merely symbolic, it has had the effect of overcoming the nation’s trauma at losing the previous war. The violence led Russia, a key mediator in the conflict, to step up diplomatic efforts to quench it.

Azerbaijan may also have been pushed into deciding to escalate the conflict by the increasingly difficult socio-economic situation in the country (economic difficulties associated with the decline of oil prices have raised social frustration and sparked spontaneous protests by the population earlier this year). Other positive experiences of autonomous regions are a source of inspiration. Voters headed to polls on after results from the first round of the vote on March 31 showed Ara Harutyunian, a wealthy businessman and former prime minister, winning over 49 percent, just short of the majority needed for an outright victory. In the early hours of 2 April fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan suddenly broke out in the Karabakh conflict zone. The Azeri defense ministry said the army had "liberated strategic heights and settlements" in the region. [50], El 4 d'abril es va publicar que el centre de comandament i control armeni havia estat destruït, apareixent un vídeo de l'atac.

); the unexpected publication by Russian (and not Armenian or Azerbaijani) sources of reports of a ceasefire; and the emphasis on the bilateral nature of the ceasefire (i.e. Azerbaijan tried to regain control over the territory. By changing the status quo and the format of the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh (including by marginalising the OSCE’s Minsk Group), and imposing a resolution on the warring parties that only Russia could guarantee (primarily involving the introduction of Russian peacekeeping forces in the conflict zone), Russia could achieve this aim. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan phoned his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, to express condolences over the death of Azeri troops on the Nagorno-Karabakh border. "The Turkish President expressed his support and solidarity in relation to the events on the contact line between Armenian and Azerbaijani and stressed that the Turkish people will always be with the people of Azerbaijan," the Azeri president�s press service said in a statement. The success of the revolution in Armenia. © OSW | Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im.